Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability afforded by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
