Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
