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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It frequently serves as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the biggest improvement wins the award. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or simply the biggest shock.

But the latest field is distinctly different. The group of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent division champions fading and recent also-rans ascending collectively. In an ordinary season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this wild and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other elite coaches.

This is how the projected vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to spin magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a typical year!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still