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Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japan's territory as China ramps up tensions following the Japan's leader's comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its ships conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Japan but also claimed by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the islands but the recent developments come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, the Japanese official, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

China claims the island as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it describes as “unification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and citizens overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An military assault by Beijing would risk escalating into a international confrontation, potentially involving the US and other allies including Tokyo, which has territory just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was likely the coast guard, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between the island and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. The island documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other powers, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

However, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.